However, if the $200 were broken down into its component sources, a different story unfolds:
| P&L Source |
Profit (Loss) |
| Implied Volatility: |
$250 |
| Time Decay: |
$50 |
| Stock Movement: |
($100) |
| Total Profit: |
$200 |
|
This story says that the profits are primarily coming from implied volatility, and that any profits from decay are not offsetting the directional movement against the position. Since implied volatility is generally cyclical by nature, at some point in the future, these profits from implied volatility are going to evaporate. If this happens, a significant opposite directional move needs to be made in order to recapture the profits lost to the change in implied volatility. In addition, how much premium is attached to this position and how close is it to expiration, so that decay will start to contribute siginficantly? Instead of letting the position ride, a better outcome might be to take your profits.
Same position - 2 completely different stories. Having partial information requires a guess; having all the information results in a foregone conclusion.
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